Efectos de los Flujos Monetarios Internacionales sobre la Economía Ecuatoriana del 2001 al 2021
| Autor | Álvaro Steve Miranda-Peña, Luis Bernardo Tonon-Ordóñez |
| Cargo | Investigador de la Facultad de Ciencias de la Administración de la Universidad del Azuay. Cuenca, Ecuador/Profesor e Investigador de la Facultad de Ciencias de la Administración de la Universidad del Azuay. Cuenca, Ecuador |
| Páginas | 10-30 |
Economía y Negocios, 2024, 15(01), 10-30.
http://revistas.ute.edu.ec/index.php/economia-y-negocios
ARTÍCULO DE INVESTIGACIÓN
ISSN-e: 2602-8050
Recibido (Received): 2023/08/24
Aceptado (Accepted): 2023/09/19
Publicado (Published): 2024/01/01
https://doi.org/10.29019/eyn.v15i1.1266
The Effects of International Monetary Flows
on the Ecuadorian Economy from 2002 to 2021
Efectos de los Flujos Monetarios Internacionales
sobre la Economía Ecuatoriana del 2001 al 2021
Álvaro Steve MIRANDA-PEÑA1 y Luis Bernardo TONON-ORDÓÑEZ1
1 Universidad del Azuay, Facultad de Ciencias de la Administración. Cuenca, Ecuador.
Email: alvaromiranda0421@uazuay.edu.ec; ltonon@uazuay.edu.ec
Abstract
Ecuador’s economic expansion has been shaped by diverse external factors that have impacted its performance.
This study investigated the correlation between external debt, foreign direct investment, and gross fixed capital for-
mation in relation to Ecuador’s economic growth spanning from 2001 to 2021. Employing a quantitative approach,
the research sourced data from various macroeconomic indicators of Ecuador’s Central Bank, and an econometric
model of logarithmic linear regression was devised, grounded in the principles of ordinary least squares. This model
facilitated an examination of the interrelationships among the variables of interest. The results obtained from the
analysis indicated that both external debt and foreign direct investment wielded significant influence on economic
growth. Specifically, external debt demonstrated a favorable eect on the dependent variable, whereas foreign di-
rect investment displayed an adverse relationship, painting a less promising scenario for Ecuador’s economy.
Keywords
Economic Growth; Elasticity; External Debt; Foreign Direct Investment; Gross Domestic Production.
Resumen
La expansión económica en Ecuador ha sido influenciada por diversos factores externos que han afectado su des-
empeño. Esta investigación examinó la relación entre la deuda externa, la inversión extranjera directa y la forma-
ción bruta de capital fijo en relación al crecimiento económico de Ecuador entre 2001 y 2021. Se realizó un estudio
cuantitativo que involucró la recolección de datos de distintos indicadores macroeconómicos del Banco Central
de Ecuador. Se formuló un modelo econométrico utilizando regresión lineal logarítmica basado en el método de
mínimos cuadrados ordinarios, lo que permitió analizar la relación entre las variables estudiadas. Los resultados
obtenidos indicaron que tanto la deuda externa como la inversión extranjera directa tuvieron un impacto impor-
tante en el crecimiento económico. Específicamente, la deuda externa tuvo una influencia positiva en la variable
dependiente, mientras que la inversión extranjera directa mostró una relación negativa, lo que sugiere un panora-
ma desfavorable para la economía ecuatoriana.
Palabras Clave
Crecimiento Económico; Deuda Externa; Elasticidad; Inversión Extranjera; Producto Interno Bruto.
Revista Economía y Negocios UTE - Año 2024 - Vol. 15 - Núm. 01 - 10-30.
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FLOWS ON THE ECUADORIAN ECONOMY
11
Introduction
During the period from 2001 to 2021, the
Ecuadorian economy has been influenced by
various external economic factors. Among
which foreign direct investment (FDI) and ex-
ternal debt (ED) can be highlighted as the main
sources of international monetary flows after
foreign trade. Mamingi and Martin (2018), es-
tablished that these two international flows
have been important sources of monetary
income that have participated and influenced
the economy of several developing countries.
In the international economic scena-
rio, developing countries have faced challen-
ges in finding means to promote economic
growth and improve their socio-economic
conditions. Consequently, turned to diffe-
rent sources of financing to achieve this ob-
jective. Is essential identifying FDI and ED
as crucial topics for economic policies and
strategic planning in emerging economies.
It is necessary to highlight that ED
has been established as the primary tool for
financing economies in development, as it
increases net income and solves the lack of
national monetary funds to cover investment
projects, economic growth, and develop-
ment. However, mismanagement of ED can
lead to economic insolvency and become an
unbearable financial burden (Munevar, 2012).
Rubio et al. (2003) determined that
ED leads to private investment, expands pro-
ductive capacity, and encourages economic
development of underdeveloped countries.
However, excessive indebtedness turns its
beneficial effect into a precarious one due to
the improper management of funds, which
significantly affects country’s economic
growth and renders it insolvent.
On the other hand, FDI, like ED, has
been considered a fundamental factor in
the growth and economic transformation of
developing countries. Which has been an im-
portant source of foreign financing and tech-
nology transfer, which conduces to: private
investment, job creation, capital production,
knowledge enhancement and economic de-
velopment in these economies.
Despite the favorable effects of FDI on
developing economies, it has been determi-
ned that it may also have negative impacts
on national economy. De la Garza (2005) es-
tablished that despite the benefits that FDI
can bring with it, there are also potential ne-
gative effects for recipient economies. The-
se negative effects may include economic
dependence, exploitation of national resou-
rces, unfair competition, negative impacts
on the balance of payments due to imports,
capital flight, among others.
According to data from the Central
Bank of Ecuador (BCE) (2023), the Ecuado-
rian economy during the specified period,
has shown an average annual growth of real
GDP in millions of dollars in 2007 of 2.86 %,
within which FDI accounted for 1.09 % of
the total GDP, and ED averaged 38.85 %
with respect to GDP. It is noteworthy that
the percentage of debt flow participation is
significantly higher than that of investment.
Therefore, it is of utmost importance to ex-
plore the impacts these variables have on
the national economic growth and determi-
ne whether their behaviors promote or dis-
courage the Ecuadorian economy.
In spite of having carried out an ex-
tensive literature review with the different
points of view of various author’s art an in-
ternational level, the relationship between
FDI and ED on economic growth has been
a highly controversial topic. While in some
countries, they are seen as determining fac-
tors for economic growth, in others, they
have been associated with negative outco-
mes such as economic stagnation and re-
gression. This aspect strengthens the mo-
tivation and importance of evaluating the
relationship of these international monetary
flows on a country’s economic performance.
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